GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 740, 10 August 2023

Saudi Arabia peace talks: Moscow's response and China’s renewed interest
Sreeja JS

Peace talks in Saudi Arabia: Moscow's response and China’s renewed interest
By Sreeja JS

On 04 and 05 August, Saudi Arabia hosted Ukraine peace talks in Jeddah, attended by delegates from 42 countries and the UN. Russia was not invited to the talks. According to Ukraine’s government, the delegates agreed that any peace treaty to end Russia’s war against Ukraine must be rooted in respect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the UN Charter.
 
Andriy Yermark, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said: “We had very productive consultations on the key principles on which a just and lasting peace should be built.” Later, he mentioned that the implementation of the “peace formula is part of Ukraine’s victory strategy and the meeting in Jeddah will go down in history.”
 
Li Hui, China’s Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs, said: “We have many disagreements and we have heard different positions, but it is important that our principles are shared,” underscoring China’s renewed commitment to support the peace talks.
 
Celso Amorim, Brazil’s Chief Presidential Adviser, said: “Any real negotiation must include all parties. Although Ukraine is the biggest victim, if we really want peace, we have to involve Moscow in this process somehow.” Previously, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Mexico’s President, rejected the meeting calling it “pointless” unless Russia was present.
 
Ukraine's aim
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's President, first announced his ten-point peace formula at a G20 summit held in November 2022. The formula includes proposals for Russia’s complete withdrawal from Ukraine’s territory, restoration of pre-war borders, a special tribunal to prosecute Russia for its war crimes, and the prevention of escalation of conflict. The meeting in Jeddah was the second in the series, with a similar meeting held earlier in Copenhagen (June 2023) where the formula could not garner the support it received now. In Jeddah, Ukraine reiterated the importance of the peace formula and the need to draft principles to end the conflict. Renewing the diplomatic offensive, Zelenskyy engaged with the delegates from the ‘Global South’ countries such as  Brazil, India, China, South Africa and the oil-rich Gulf countries who largely remained neutral. 
 
Moscow’s response
Moscow’s response to the ten-point peace plan and the Jeddah meeting remains the same; no talks would be successful without acknowledging Russia’s concerns. On 31 July, Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, commented that Moscow would closely follow the meeting in Jeddah. He added that any attempts to promote a peaceful settlement are “worthy of a positive assessment.” On 07 August, Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, remarked that “...without Russia’s participation and without taking into account its interest, no meeting on the Ukraine crisis has any added value.” The response of Russia is lukewarm, and despite its willingness to start negotiations, actual efforts are yet to be seen. Further, Vladimir Putin recently said there could be no cease-fire while Ukraine’s forces are on the offensive without rejecting the idea of peace talks over Ukraine.
 
China’s interest
China was at the centre stage of the Jeddah meeting as a probable diplomatic success story for Ukraine. Previously, China refrained from attending a similar meeting in Copenhagen. China’s renewed interest follows its proposal of a 12-point peace plan in February 2023. Putin said the plan could become viable if the West and Ukraine are ready to dialogue and negotiate. This peace plan proposed by Beijing aimed to portray itself as a neutral actor and a potential mediator. It called for respect for the UN Charter, balanced European security architecture, cessation of hostilities, conflict resolution through dialogue and negotiation, and an end to unilateral sanctions. Despite the stark criticisms raised against it, the initiative necessarily denotes a shift in Beijing’s approach from abstaining to initiate the dialogue. One of the reasons could be to project itself as a responsible global power. For Ukraine and West, China's engagement is a win despite its future, given the larger role it can play in the negotiating table because of its close relations with Russia.
 
References
Angus McDowall, "Ukraine calls Jeddah talks productive, Russia calls them doomed," Reuters, 06 August 2023
Veronika Melkozerova, "Kyiv says Jeddah participants back Ukraine territorial integrity in a peace deal," Politico.eu, 06 August 2023
"Saudi Arabia kicks off Ukraine talks that exclude Russia," Al Jazeera, 05 August 2023
Lawrence Norman and Stephen Kalin, "Saudi Arabia to Host Ukraine Peace Talks as Part of Western Effort to Woo Global South," Wall Street Journal, 29 July 2024
"Peace talks without Russia have no value – Moscow," RT News, 07 August 2023
Xinlu Liang, "China takes cautious line on Saudi-led Ukraine talks but Russia still the big bear not in the room: analysts," South China Morning Post, 07 August 2023
Laurie Chen and Martin Quin Pollard, "Analysis: China's Ukraine peace-talks gambit shows shift in approach," Reuters, 06 August 2023
Kawala Xie, “Explainer | China’s Ukraine peace plan: what does it say and what are its chances of success?” South China Morning Post, 27 April 2023

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